We’re less than three weeks away from the official end of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, but a new tropical threat has emerged in the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters say a tropical depression or tropical storm could develop by the end of the week or over the weekend.

According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression will likely form late this week as the system moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea. As of Tuesday morning, the system has a 40% chance of development over the next two days and a 80% chance over the next seven days.

Rafael remains a "powerful compact hurricane" as it slowly churns in the central Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center says.